Context
Tensions in West Asia have spiked after pagers and hand held radios exploded in attacks throughout Lebanon and parts of Syria.
About
Hezbollah, the Iranian-sponsored Lebanese political party and militant group, has accused Israel of carrying out the attacks, which the Israelis have neither owned nor disowned.
Gaza War
- After the Palestinian militant group Hamas attacked southern Israel last year, Israel released its large retaliation, wherein more than 41,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza so far.
- After 11 months of airstrikes and ground operations, about 100 hostages continue to be in Hamas captivity.
- Throughout this period, Hezbollah has engaged Israel through shelling and rocket fire along its northern border, leading to the displacement of Israelis.
Future Course of the War
- A statement from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office strongly cautioned the opportunity of increasing military operations to get Hezbollah to prevent firing at Israeli targets.
- There are numerous scenarios viable over the following couple of weeks.
- There will be a repeat of the assault when Iran launched a wave of aerial strikes on targets in Israel, although with constrained effect.
- Iran could coordinate with its partners in the so-called Axis of Resistance — Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis — to perform attacks on Israel.
- Israel, on its component, should carry out an aerial offensive towards not only Hezbollah but also the Lebanese country apparatus.
Concerns for India
- Threat to Indian Community: There are about 18,000 Indians in Israel and about 5,000-10,000 Indians in Iran, about 90 lakh people are living and running inside the Gulf and West Asia region.
- Any conflict that expands will emerge as posing a risk to the Indian community that is based in the area.
- Energy Security: The West Asia place contributes to India’s eighty percent of oil supplies, which a potential conflict will impact.
- India has been capable of minimizing the effect of oil fees because of the Russia-Ukraine war by buying Russian oil at discounted prices, but this conflict will have an adverse impact on energy prices.
- Investment and Strategic Importance: India has invested in a strategic relation with major Arab international locations, Iran, and Israel.
- India sees the area as its extended neighbourhood, and it’s been pushing for the India-Middle-East-Europe Economic corridor, which is strategic in addition to economic services.
- Chabahar in Iran is any other strategic financial undertaking, which acts as a gateway to Afghanistan and Central Asia — considering the fact that Pakistan denies land transit to Indian items.
- Any conflict within the location, and the implementation of any US sanctions can even affect India’s plans for Chabahar port.
- In addition, the India-Israel-UAE-US I2U2 initiative and plans to attach Indian cargo routes via the International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC) to Russia will be affected.
- Defence Relations with Israel: India has a very deep strategic relation with Israel, especially within the context of defence and security partnership.
India’s Stand
- Maintaining a Balanced Stand: India’s stakes within the bilateral relationships with both Israel and Iran are large, India will expect both the countries to keep away from army actions in an effort to cause a risky and wider struggle inside the place.
- Based on the Complex Regional Politics: Inter-country and intra-state conflicts within the Middle East are deep and pervasive, and India will need to for all time stability its engagement with key regional actors — Egypt, Iran, Israel, Qatar, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates — whose orientation and interest are extraordinary and regularly in war.
- Non- Ideological Engagement: The non-ideological engagement with the location is a necessary complement to India’s expanding interests in the Middle East.
- India’s interests inside the place are not limited to oil imports and labour exports.
- The Gulf Arab states — specifically Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates — have emerged as primary economic and political partners for India.
Way Ahead
- India has thus far made no statements at the risky scenario inside the area. In April, after the Iranian assault on Israel, India had expressed “serious difficulty” on the escalation of hostilities, and called for “immediate de-escalation”.
- India has strategic ties with both Iran and Israel — and for many years, it’s been capable of balance among the two sides. But if the warfare widens, it might be tough for it to preserve an ambivalent function.
- In the context of such deep ties with both Israel and Iran, India has difficulty in choosing sides.
- India’s function that there ought to be “on the spot de-escalation” and “step returned from violence” and “step back from violence” and “return to the path of diplomacy” is, therefore, crucial to its national interest.
Source: Indian Express